Arguing Why Drastic Emissions Cuts Is Better Than Waiting for Tech, In One Sketchy Graph

Some time ago I drew a graph trying to show why drastically cutting emissions is better than waiting for technology to save us.

When I made this I was trying to argue that drastic action now would be better than overshooting and hoping for carbon capture. Since then I’ve changed my stance somewhat. We should be doing our best, including trying to steeply cut emissions but it’s not so easy.

Energy (mainly derived from fossil fuels) has been essential to modern civilization. We can switch away from them but it’ll be very expensive, moreso in an energy crunch. Though we should change consumption habits, I trust that tech will save us (or at least do the hard work). Emissions came down 5% in 2020 but that was after shuttering most economic activity. Thing is we need that drop each year over the decade to reach the 1.5°C target, which I doubt is possible.

In general, I don’t think it’s good to focus on a single target but rather a trajectory. 2°C is worse than 1.5°C, but 1.5°C will be plenty bad on its own. Better to do the best we can, which includes investing in technologies like carbon capture which we might need to cool the earth down again as well as cover hard-to-decarbonize sectors.